M Scale, Post-Semifinal Edition

Here it is, the new Scale with the first round of the CFP Semifinals and updated bowl results figured in.  Congratulations to LSU and defending champion Clemson as they will battle for the crown in 2020!!

		Teams	Conference	cw	cl	pct
	1	Clemson	ACC	14	0	1.000
	2	LSU	SEC	14	0	1.000
	3	Ohio St	Big 10	13	1	0.929
	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	12	2	0.857
	5	Notre Dame	Independent P5	11	2	0.846
	6	Georgia	SEC	11	2	0.846
	7	Oregon	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	8	Utah	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	9	Baylor	Big 12	11	2	0.846
	10	Penn State	Big 10	11	2	0.846
	11	Iowa	Big 10	10	3	0.769
	12	Alabama	SEC	10	2	0.833
	13	Florida	SEC	10	2	0.833
	14	Minnesota	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	15	Wisconsin	Big 10	10	3	0.769
	16	Michigan	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	17	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	13	1	0.929
	18	Auburn	SEC	9	3	0.750
	19	Virginia	ACC	9	4	0.692
	20	Boise State	Mountain West	12	2	0.857
	21	Memphis	American Athletic	12	2	0.857
	22	Kansas St	Big 12	8	4	0.667
	23	USC	Pac 12	8	5	0.615
	24	Air Force	Mountain West	11	2	0.846
	25	Virginia Tech	ACC	8	4	0.667

 

Teams that moved, for better or worse, are in bold type.

Playoff Semifinals: Clemson and LSU Advance

So the 2019/20 CFP is officially underway. Not to mention more of the neverending stream of bowl games.

Here are the latest results.  Winners are in bold type, higher rated teams are listed first so you can see at a glance if things went according to their M Scale positioning. Previous and current ratings are posted on either side so you can track the rise and fall of each team involved.  Updated rankings will be the next post.

Prev	Cotton				New
9	Penn State	Big 10	53		10
19	Memphis	American Athletic	39		21
Prev	Gasparilla				New
43	Central Florida	American Athletic	48		39
65	Marshall	Conference USA	25		77
Prev	Hawaii				New
49	Brigham Young	Independent G5	34		56
58	Hawai’i	Mountain West	38		52
Prev	Quick Lane				New
39	Pittsburgh	ACC	34		31
91	Eastern Michigan	MAC	30		94
Prev	Independence				New
48	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	14		38
59	Miami	ACC	0		67
Prev	Cheeze It				New
26	Air Force	Mountain West	31		24
54	Washington State	Pac 12	21		61
Prev	Holiday				New
16	Iowa	Big 10	49		11
21	USC	Pac 12	24		23
Prev	Texas				New
32	Oklahoma St	Big 12	21		42
38	Texas A&M	SEC	24		26
Prev	Pinstripe				New
24	Wake Forest	ACC	21		27
47	Michigan St	Big 10	27		36
Prev	Military				New
52	North Carolina	ACC	55		48
57	Temple	American Athletic	13		60
Prev	Camping World				New
10	Notre Dame	Independent P5	33		5
30	Iowa State	Big 12	9		43
Prev	FIESTA	Playoff Semifinal			New
1	Clemson	ACC	29		1
2	Ohio St	Big 10	23		3
Prev	PEACH	Playoff Semifinal			New
3	LSU	SEC	63		2
4	Oklahoma	Big 12	28		4

 

And here are the updated conference standings, sorted by number of wins, then winning percentage.  The Big 10 has the most wins so far with the Mountain West and ACC hot on its heels.  The SEC is undefeated at 2-0 and Notre Dame added another bowl trophy to its packed display case.

Bowl Standings	W	L	pct
Big 10	3	1	.750
Mountain West	3	2	.600
ACC	3	2	.600
SEC	2	0	1.000
Sunbelt	2	1	.667
MAC	2	2	.500
Conference USA	2	4	.333
Notre Dame	1	0	1.000
Independent G5	1	1	.500
Pac 12	1	2	.333
American Athletic	1	3	.250
Big 12	0	3	.000

The M Scale After the Early Bowls

Here is the Scale after the early slate of bowls.  Highlighted are the teams that moved…

		Teams	Conference	cw	cl	pct
	1	Clemson	ACC	13	0	1.000
	2	Ohio St	Big 10	13	0	1.000
	3	LSU	SEC	13	0	1.000
	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	12	1	0.923
	5	Georgia	SEC	11	2	0.846
	6	Oregon	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	7	Baylor	Big 12	11	2	0.846
	8	Utah	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	9	Penn State	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	10	Notre Dame	Independent P5	10	2	0.833
	11	Alabama	SEC	10	2	0.833
	12	Minnesota	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	13	Florida	SEC	10	2	0.833
	14	Wisconsin	Big 10	10	3	0.769
	15	Michigan	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	16	Iowa	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	17	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	13	1	0.929
	18	Auburn	SEC	9	3	0.750
	19	Memphis	American Athletic	12	1	0.923
	20	Virginia	ACC	9	4	0.692
	21	USC	Pac 12	8	4	0.667
	22	Boise State	Mountain West	12	2	0.857
	23	Kansas St	Big 12	8	4	0.667
	24	Wake Forest	ACC	8	4	0.667
	25	Virginia Tech	ACC	8	4	0.667

So Boise State fell two places with their loss to Washington, who remained unranked.  Virginia and USC were the beneficiaries, each moving up one rung. Appalachian State remained at #17 despite their win.

The Early Bowls are In

Some early bowl results and the first conference bowl standings follow. Included are the ratings of the teams before and after the bowl. Winners are in bold.

Prev	New Mexico				New
48	San Diego St	Mountain West	48		42
67	Central Michigan	MAC	11		80
Prev	Frisco				New
76	Utah State	Mountain West	41		86
87	Kent State	MAC	51		81
Prev	Cure				New
75	Georgia Southern	Sunbelt	16		85
77	Liberty	Independent G5	23		68
Prev	Boca Raton				New
26	SMU	American Athletic	28		41
41	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	52		36
Prev	Camellia				New
81	Arkansas State	Sunbelt	34		72
94	Florida International	Conference USA	26		100
Prev	Las Vegas				New
20	Boise State	Mountain West	7		22
39	Washington	Pac 12	38		29
Prev	New Orleans				New
17	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	31		17
57	UAB	Conference USA	17		66
Prev	Bahamas				New
82	Buffalo	MAC	31		73
83	Charlotte	Conference USA	9		89

 

So as you can see, there were some interesting things happening here. SMU got exposed, and Washington, the only P5 school in this set of bowls, took care of business against a ranked Boise State.

Bowl Standings	W	L	pct
MAC	2	1	.667
Sunbelt	2	1	.667
Independent G5	1	0	1.000
Pac 12	1	0	1.000
Mountain West	1	2	.333
Conference USA	1	3	.250
American Athletic	0	1	.000

And in the early going, the MAC and Sunbelt impressed, while the American (AKA the SEC of the Group of Five), started 0-1. As for CUSA, well, not too good…

 

Post Army/Navy Scale AKA The Slow Week

I am always a bit conflicted about the Army/Navy game.  I grew up a Navy brat as my dad spent 20 years in that storied branch.  Then I spent 6 years in the North Carolina Army National Guard.  So I don’t have much animosity toward either side, though I generally favor Army.

As for the Scale, it doesn’t usually change a lot as a result of this pairing. With great respect for both Academies, it is harder to attract top  talent when it is tied to mandatory military service. While there have been professional stars out of these teams- former Cowboys great Roger Staubach comes to mind- a stint in the Army or Navy is a difficult path to the NFL.  Not only that, both teams are G5 level, thus both play a less glamorous schedule than their P5 brethren.

All that is to say that this week’s Scale is exactly the same as last week’s:

		Teams	Conference	w	l	pct
	1	Clemson	ACC	13	0	1.000
	2	Ohio St	Big 10	13	0	1.000
	3	LSU	SEC	13	0	1.000
	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	12	1	0.923
	5	Georgia	SEC	11	2	0.846
	6	Oregon	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	7	Baylor	Big 12	11	2	0.846
	8	Utah	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	9	Penn State	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	10	Notre Dame	Independent P5	10	2	0.833
	11	Alabama	SEC	10	2	0.833
	12	Minnesota	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	13	Florida	SEC	10	2	0.833
	14	Wisconsin	Big 10	10	3	0.769
	15	Michigan	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	16	Iowa	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	17	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	12	1	0.923
	18	Auburn	SEC	9	3	0.750
	19	Memphis	American Athletic	12	1	0.923
	20	Boise State	Mountain West	12	1	0.923
	21	Virginia	ACC	9	4	0.692
	22	USC	Pac 12	8	4	0.667
	23	Kansas St	Big 12	8	4	0.667
	24	Wake Forest	ACC	8	4	0.667
	25	Virginia Tech	ACC	8	4	0.667

 

So I thought it would be fun to look at where Army and Navy stand in the overall Scale. Here’s the block of teams that includes the victorious Midshipmen:

23	Kansas St	Big 12	8	4	0.667
24	Wake Forest	ACC	8	4	0.667
25	Virginia Tech	ACC	8	4	0.667
26	SMU	American Athletic	10	2	0.833
27	Air Force	Mountain West	10	2	0.833
28	Navy	American Athletic	10	2	0.833
29	Cincinnati	American Athletic	10	3	0.769
30	Iowa State	Big 12	7	5	0.583
31	Louisville	ACC	7	5	0.583
32	Oklahoma St	Big 12	7	5	0.583
33	Texas	Big 12	7	5	0.583

 

Just missed the top 25, at least for now.

And the Cadets, who did not have the year they hoped for:

110	Colorado St	Mountain West	4	8	0.333
111	UTSA	Conference USA	4	8	0.333
112	Houston	American Athletic	4	8	0.333
113	UNLV	Mountain West	4	8	0.333
114	Arkansas	SEC	2	10	0.167
115	Army West Point	Independent G5	5	8	0.385
116	Rice	Conference USA	3	9	0.250
117	East Carolina	American Athletic	4	8	0.333
118	Bowling Green	MAC	3	9	0.250
119	Texas State	Sunbelt	3	9	0.250
120	North Texas	Conference USA	3	9	0.250

On to the bowls!!

 

The Scale Knew It All Along!!

Or, you know, two weeks ago.  That’s when the M Scale featured Oklahoma in the Top 4 instead of Georgia.  I know, I know, I have made a point of emphasizing that “the Scale is not predictive”.  But it does feel good to be right, at least once in a while. Now if the Committee could just get the order right…..

Anyway, here is the M Scale, post-conference championship games edition.  Conference champions are in bold.

		Teams	Conference	w	l	pct
	1	Clemson	ACC	13	0	1.000
	2	Ohio St	Big 10	13	0	1.000
	3	LSU	SEC	13	0	1.000
	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	12	1	0.923
	5	Georgia	SEC	11	2	0.846
	6	Oregon	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	7	Baylor	Big 12	11	2	0.846
	8	Utah	Pac 12	11	2	0.846
	9	Penn State	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	10	Notre Dame	Independent P5	10	2	0.833
	11	Alabama	SEC	10	2	0.833
	12	Minnesota	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	13	Florida	SEC	10	2	0.833
	14	Wisconsin	Big 10	10	3	0.769
	15	Michigan	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	16	Iowa	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	17	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	12	1	0.923
	18	Auburn	SEC	9	3	0.750
	19	Memphis	American Athletic	12	1	0.923
	20	Boise State	Mountain West	12	1	0.923
	21	Virginia	ACC	9	4	0.692
	22	USC	Pac 12	8	4	0.667
	23	Kansas St	Big 12	8	4	0.667
	24	Wake Forest	ACC	8	4	0.667
	25	Virginia Tech	ACC	8	4	0.667

 

Scale is Stable; Bring on the Championship Games!

Nothing in the way of sea changes in this week’s M Scale; the top 5 feel pretty solid.

But…what if? The matchups in the Conference Championship Games feature some high-powered matchups, and if a favorite falls, this whole CFP tower could come crashing down.

Paranoia anyone?

		Teams	Conference	w	l	pct
	1	Clemson	ACC	12	0	1.000
	2	Ohio St	Big 10	12	0	1.000
	3	LSU	SEC	12	0	1.000
	4	Oklahoma	Big 12	11	1	0.917
	5	Georgia	SEC	11	1	0.917
	6	Baylor	Big 12	11	1	0.917
	7	Utah	Pac 12	11	1	0.917
	8	Penn State	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	9	Oregon	Pac 12	10	2	0.833
	10	Notre Dame	Independent P5	10	2	0.833
	11	Wisconsin	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	12	Alabama	SEC	10	2	0.833
	13	Minnesota	Big 10	10	2	0.833
	14	Florida	SEC	10	2	0.833
	15	Michigan	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	16	Iowa	Big 10	9	3	0.750
	17	Auburn	SEC	9	3	0.750
	18	Virginia	ACC	9	3	0.750
	19	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	11	1	0.917
	20	USC	Pac 12	8	4	0.667
	21	Memphis	American Athletic	11	1	0.917
	22	Boise State	Mountain West	11	1	0.917
	23	Kansas St	Big 12	8	4	0.667
	24	Cincinnati	American Athletic	10	2	0.833
	25	Wake Forest	ACC	8	4	0.667

They’re Baaaack….

Alabama, that is.

So both Baylor and Minnesota tumbled from the ranks of the undefeated, leaving the Scale to rate a bunch of one-loss teams to see who deserved a spot in the top four.  And the winner is— Alabama!!!

Hey, I’m not the biggest fan of the Tide, but while numbers do sometimes lie, the Scale doesn’t!!!

	Teams	Conference	w	l	pct
1	Clemson	ACC	11	0	1.000
2	Ohio St	Big 10	10	0	1.000
3	LSU	SEC	10	0	1.000
4	Alabama	SEC	9	1	0.900
5	Penn State	Big 10	9	1	0.900
6	Oregon	Pac 12	9	1	0.900
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	9	1	0.900
8	Georgia	SEC	9	1	0.900
9	Minnesota	Big 10	9	1	0.900
10	Baylor	Big 12	9	1	0.900
11	Utah	Pac 12	9	1	0.900
12	Florida	SEC	9	2	0.818
13	Michigan	Big 10	8	2	0.800
14	Notre Dame	Independent P5	8	2	0.800
15	Wisconsin	Big 10	8	2	0.800
16	Cincinnati	American Athletic	9	1	0.900
17	Auburn	SEC	7	3	0.700
18	Iowa	Big 10	7	3	0.700
19	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	9	1	0.900
20	Virginia	ACC	7	3	0.700
21	USC	Pac 12	7	4	0.636
22	SMU	American Athletic	9	1	0.900
23	Memphis	American Athletic	9	1	0.900
24	Boise State	Mountain West	9	1	0.900
25	Wake Forest	ACC	7	3	0.700

Bye Bama, Give My Regards to Penn State

This is possibly the best time of the college football season, as all those undefeated teams are starting to collide. LSU and Minnesota took full advantage of the chance to show everybody what they are, beating Alabama and Penn State respectively.

And then there were five…undefeated teams, that is.

	Teams	Conference	w	l	pct
1	Clemson	ACC	10	0	1.000
2	Ohio St	Big 10	9	0	1.000
3	LSU	SEC	9	0	1.000
4	Minnesota	Big 10	9	0	1.000
5	Baylor	Big 12	9	0	1.000
6	Alabama	SEC	8	1	0.889
7	Penn State	Big 10	8	1	0.889
8	Oregon	Pac 12	8	1	0.889
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	8	1	0.889
10	Georgia	SEC	8	1	0.889
11	Utah	Pac 12	8	1	0.889
12	Florida	SEC	8	2	0.800
13	Michigan	Big 10	7	2	0.778
14	Auburn	SEC	7	2	0.778
15	Notre Dame	Independent P5	7	2	0.778
16	Wisconsin	Big 10	7	2	0.778
17	Cincinnati	American Athletic	8	1	0.889
18	Wake Forest	ACC	7	2	0.778
19	Virginia	ACC	7	3	0.700
20	SMU	American Athletic	9	1	0.900
21	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	8	1	0.889
22	Iowa	Big 10	6	3	0.667
23	Memphis	American Athletic	8	1	0.889
24	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	8	1	0.889
25	Boise State	Mountain West	8	1	0.889

Georgia Climbs, Florida Falls

The top of this week’s Scale pretty much remains the same, but the result of the much-anticipated seldom duplicated Georgia/Florida game sent the Bulldogs to #11 and plunged the Gators to #15. Other than that, say goodbye to (former #24) Louisiana Tech and hello to #23 Virginia, this season’s first 3-loss team on the Scale.

	Teams	Conference	w	l	pct
1	Clemson	ACC	9	0	1.000
2	Alabama	SEC	8	0	1.000
3	Ohio St	Big 10	8	0	1.000
4	Penn State	Big 10	8	0	1.000
5	LSU	SEC	8	0	1.000
6	Minnesota	Big 10	8	0	1.000
7	Baylor	Big 12	8	0	1.000
8	Oregon	Pac 12	8	1	0.889
9	Utah	Pac 12	8	1	0.889
10	Oklahoma	Big 12	7	1	0.875
11	Georgia	SEC	7	1	0.875
12	Michigan	Big 10	7	2	0.778
13	Auburn	SEC	7	2	0.778
14	Wake Forest	ACC	7	1	0.875
15	Florida	SEC	7	2	0.778
16	Iowa	Big 10	6	2	0.750
17	Notre Dame	Independent P5	6	2	0.750
18	Cincinnati	American Athletic	7	1	0.875
19	Wisconsin	Big 10	6	2	0.750
20	Kansas St	Big 12	6	2	0.750
21	Memphis	American Athletic	8	1	0.889
22	SMU	American Athletic	8	1	0.889
23	Virginia	ACC	6	3	0.667
24	Appalachian State	Sunbelt	7	1	0.875
25	San Diego St	Mountain West	7	1	0.875