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M Scale, Post-Semifinal Edition

Here it is, the new Scale with the first round of the CFP Semifinals and updated bowl results figured in.  Congratulations to LSU and defending champion Clemson as they will battle for the crown in 2020!!

    Teams Conference cw cl pct  
  1 Clemson ACC 14 0 1.000  
  2 LSU SEC 14 0 1.000  
  3 Ohio St Big 10 13 1 0.929  
  4 Oklahoma Big 12 12 2 0.857  
  5 Notre Dame Independent P5 11 2 0.846  
  6 Georgia SEC 11 2 0.846  
  7 Oregon Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  8 Utah Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  9 Baylor Big 12 11 2 0.846  
  10 Penn State Big 10 11 2 0.846  
  11 Iowa Big 10 10 3 0.769  
  12 Alabama SEC 10 2 0.833  
  13 Florida SEC 10 2 0.833  
  14 Minnesota Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  15 Wisconsin Big 10 10 3 0.769  
  16 Michigan Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  17 Appalachian State Sunbelt 13 1 0.929  
  18 Auburn SEC 9 3 0.750  
  19 Virginia ACC 9 4 0.692  
  20 Boise State Mountain West 12 2 0.857  
  21 Memphis American Athletic 12 2 0.857  
  22 Kansas St Big 12 8 4 0.667  
  23 USC Pac 12 8 5 0.615  
  24 Air Force Mountain West 11 2 0.846  
  25 Virginia Tech ACC 8 4 0.667

 

Teams that moved, for better or worse, are in bold type.

Playoff Semifinals: Clemson and LSU Advance

So the 2019/20 CFP is officially underway. Not to mention more of the neverending stream of bowl games.

Here are the latest results.  Winners are in bold type, higher rated teams are listed first so you can see at a glance if things went according to their M Scale positioning. Previous and current ratings are posted on either side so you can track the rise and fall of each team involved.  Updated rankings will be the next post.

Prev Cotton New
9 Penn State Big 10 53 10
19 Memphis American Athletic 39 21
 
Prev Gasparilla New
43 Central Florida American Athletic 48 39
65 Marshall Conference USA 25 77
 
Prev Hawaii New
49 Brigham Young Independent G5 34 56
58 Hawai’i Mountain West 38 52
Prev Quick Lane New
39 Pittsburgh ACC 34 31
91 Eastern Michigan MAC 30 94
Prev Independence New
48 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 14 38
59 Miami ACC 0 67
Prev Cheeze It New
26 Air Force Mountain West 31 24
54 Washington State Pac 12 21 61
Prev Holiday New
16 Iowa Big 10 49 11
21 USC Pac 12 24 23
Prev Texas New
32 Oklahoma St Big 12 21 42
38 Texas A&M SEC 24 26
Prev Pinstripe New
24 Wake Forest ACC 21 27
47 Michigan St Big 10 27 36
Prev Military New
52 North Carolina ACC 55 48
57 Temple American Athletic 13 60
Prev Camping World New
10 Notre Dame Independent P5 33 5
30 Iowa State Big 12 9 43
Prev FIESTA Playoff Semifinal New
1 Clemson ACC 29 1
2 Ohio St Big 10 23 3
Prev PEACH Playoff Semifinal New
3 LSU SEC 63 2
4 Oklahoma Big 12 28 4

 

And here are the updated conference standings, sorted by number of wins, then winning percentage.  The Big 10 has the most wins so far with the Mountain West and ACC hot on its heels.  The SEC is undefeated at 2-0 and Notre Dame added another bowl trophy to its packed display case.

Bowl Standings W L pct
Big 10 3 1 .750
Mountain West 3 2 .600
ACC 3 2 .600
SEC 2 0 1.000
Sunbelt 2 1 .667
MAC 2 2 .500
Conference USA 2 4 .333
Notre Dame 1 0 1.000
Independent G5 1 1 .500
Pac 12 1 2 .333
American Athletic 1 3 .250
Big 12 0 3 .000

The M Scale After the Early Bowls

Here is the Scale after the early slate of bowls.  Highlighted are the teams that moved…

    Teams Conference cw cl pct  
  1 Clemson ACC 13 0 1.000  
  2 Ohio St Big 10 13 0 1.000  
  3 LSU SEC 13 0 1.000  
  4 Oklahoma Big 12 12 1 0.923  
  5 Georgia SEC 11 2 0.846  
  6 Oregon Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  7 Baylor Big 12 11 2 0.846  
  8 Utah Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  9 Penn State Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  10 Notre Dame Independent P5 10 2 0.833  
  11 Alabama SEC 10 2 0.833  
  12 Minnesota Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  13 Florida SEC 10 2 0.833  
  14 Wisconsin Big 10 10 3 0.769  
  15 Michigan Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  16 Iowa Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  17 Appalachian State Sunbelt 13 1 0.929  
  18 Auburn SEC 9 3 0.750  
  19 Memphis American Athletic 12 1 0.923  
  20 Virginia ACC 9 4 0.692  
  21 USC Pac 12 8 4 0.667  
  22 Boise State Mountain West 12 2 0.857  
  23 Kansas St Big 12 8 4 0.667  
  24 Wake Forest ACC 8 4 0.667  
  25 Virginia Tech ACC 8 4 0.667

So Boise State fell two places with their loss to Washington, who remained unranked.  Virginia and USC were the beneficiaries, each moving up one rung. Appalachian State remained at #17 despite their win.

The Early Bowls are In

Some early bowl results and the first conference bowl standings follow. Included are the ratings of the teams before and after the bowl. Winners are in bold.

Prev New Mexico New
48 San Diego St Mountain West 48 42
67 Central Michigan MAC 11 80
Prev Frisco New
76 Utah State Mountain West 41 86
87 Kent State MAC 51 81
Prev Cure New
75 Georgia Southern Sunbelt 16 85
77 Liberty Independent G5 23 68
Prev Boca Raton New
26 SMU American Athletic 28 41
41 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 52 36
Prev Camellia New
81 Arkansas State Sunbelt 34 72
94 Florida International Conference USA 26 100
Prev Las Vegas New
20 Boise State Mountain West 7 22
39 Washington Pac 12 38 29
Prev New Orleans New
17 Appalachian State Sunbelt 31 17
57 UAB Conference USA 17 66
Prev Bahamas New
82 Buffalo MAC 31 73
83 Charlotte Conference USA 9 89

 

So as you can see, there were some interesting things happening here. SMU got exposed, and Washington, the only P5 school in this set of bowls, took care of business against a ranked Boise State.

Bowl Standings W L pct
MAC 2 1 .667
Sunbelt 2 1 .667
Independent G5 1 0 1.000
Pac 12 1 0 1.000
Mountain West 1 2 .333
Conference USA 1 3 .250
American Athletic 0 1 .000

And in the early going, the MAC and Sunbelt impressed, while the American (AKA the SEC of the Group of Five), started 0-1. As for CUSA, well, not too good…

 

Post Army/Navy Scale AKA The Slow Week

I am always a bit conflicted about the Army/Navy game.  I grew up a Navy brat as my dad spent 20 years in that storied branch.  Then I spent 6 years in the North Carolina Army National Guard.  So I don’t have much animosity toward either side, though I generally favor Army.

As for the Scale, it doesn’t usually change a lot as a result of this pairing. With great respect for both Academies, it is harder to attract top  talent when it is tied to mandatory military service. While there have been professional stars out of these teams- former Cowboys great Roger Staubach comes to mind- a stint in the Army or Navy is a difficult path to the NFL.  Not only that, both teams are G5 level, thus both play a less glamorous schedule than their P5 brethren.

All that is to say that this week’s Scale is exactly the same as last week’s:

    Teams Conference w l pct  
  1 Clemson ACC 13 0 1.000  
  2 Ohio St Big 10 13 0 1.000  
  3 LSU SEC 13 0 1.000  
  4 Oklahoma Big 12 12 1 0.923  
  5 Georgia SEC 11 2 0.846  
  6 Oregon Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  7 Baylor Big 12 11 2 0.846  
  8 Utah Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  9 Penn State Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  10 Notre Dame Independent P5 10 2 0.833  
  11 Alabama SEC 10 2 0.833  
  12 Minnesota Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  13 Florida SEC 10 2 0.833  
  14 Wisconsin Big 10 10 3 0.769  
  15 Michigan Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  16 Iowa Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  17 Appalachian State Sunbelt 12 1 0.923  
  18 Auburn SEC 9 3 0.750  
  19 Memphis American Athletic 12 1 0.923  
  20 Boise State Mountain West 12 1 0.923  
  21 Virginia ACC 9 4 0.692  
  22 USC Pac 12 8 4 0.667  
  23 Kansas St Big 12 8 4 0.667  
  24 Wake Forest ACC 8 4 0.667  
  25 Virginia Tech ACC 8 4 0.667

 

So I thought it would be fun to look at where Army and Navy stand in the overall Scale. Here’s the block of teams that includes the victorious Midshipmen:

23 Kansas St Big 12 8 4 0.667
24 Wake Forest ACC 8 4 0.667
25 Virginia Tech ACC 8 4 0.667
26 SMU American Athletic 10 2 0.833
27 Air Force Mountain West 10 2 0.833
28 Navy American Athletic 10 2 0.833
29 Cincinnati American Athletic 10 3 0.769
30 Iowa State Big 12 7 5 0.583
31 Louisville ACC 7 5 0.583
32 Oklahoma St Big 12 7 5 0.583
33 Texas Big 12 7 5 0.583

 

Just missed the top 25, at least for now.

And the Cadets, who did not have the year they hoped for:

110 Colorado St Mountain West 4 8 0.333
111 UTSA Conference USA 4 8 0.333
112 Houston American Athletic 4 8 0.333
113 UNLV Mountain West 4 8 0.333
114 Arkansas SEC 2 10 0.167
115 Army West Point Independent G5 5 8 0.385
116 Rice Conference USA 3 9 0.250
117 East Carolina American Athletic 4 8 0.333
118 Bowling Green MAC 3 9 0.250
119 Texas State Sunbelt 3 9 0.250
120 North Texas Conference USA 3 9 0.250

On to the bowls!!

 

The Scale Knew It All Along!!

Or, you know, two weeks ago.  That’s when the M Scale featured Oklahoma in the Top 4 instead of Georgia.  I know, I know, I have made a point of emphasizing that “the Scale is not predictive”.  But it does feel good to be right, at least once in a while. Now if the Committee could just get the order right…..

Anyway, here is the M Scale, post-conference championship games edition.  Conference champions are in bold.

    Teams Conference w l pct  
  1 Clemson ACC 13 0 1.000  
  2 Ohio St Big 10 13 0 1.000  
  3 LSU SEC 13 0 1.000  
  4 Oklahoma Big 12 12 1 0.923  
  5 Georgia SEC 11 2 0.846  
  6 Oregon Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  7 Baylor Big 12 11 2 0.846  
  8 Utah Pac 12 11 2 0.846  
  9 Penn State Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  10 Notre Dame Independent P5 10 2 0.833  
  11 Alabama SEC 10 2 0.833  
  12 Minnesota Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  13 Florida SEC 10 2 0.833  
  14 Wisconsin Big 10 10 3 0.769  
  15 Michigan Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  16 Iowa Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  17 Appalachian State Sunbelt 12 1 0.923  
  18 Auburn SEC 9 3 0.750  
  19 Memphis American Athletic 12 1 0.923  
  20 Boise State Mountain West 12 1 0.923  
  21 Virginia ACC 9 4 0.692  
  22 USC Pac 12 8 4 0.667  
  23 Kansas St Big 12 8 4 0.667  
  24 Wake Forest ACC 8 4 0.667  
  25 Virginia Tech ACC 8 4 0.667

 

Scale is Stable; Bring on the Championship Games!

Nothing in the way of sea changes in this week’s M Scale; the top 5 feel pretty solid.

But…what if? The matchups in the Conference Championship Games feature some high-powered matchups, and if a favorite falls, this whole CFP tower could come crashing down.

Paranoia anyone?

    Teams Conference w l pct  
  1 Clemson ACC 12 0 1.000  
  2 Ohio St Big 10 12 0 1.000  
  3 LSU SEC 12 0 1.000  
  4 Oklahoma Big 12 11 1 0.917  
  5 Georgia SEC 11 1 0.917  
  6 Baylor Big 12 11 1 0.917  
  7 Utah Pac 12 11 1 0.917  
  8 Penn State Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  9 Oregon Pac 12 10 2 0.833  
  10 Notre Dame Independent P5 10 2 0.833  
  11 Wisconsin Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  12 Alabama SEC 10 2 0.833  
  13 Minnesota Big 10 10 2 0.833  
  14 Florida SEC 10 2 0.833  
  15 Michigan Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  16 Iowa Big 10 9 3 0.750  
  17 Auburn SEC 9 3 0.750  
  18 Virginia ACC 9 3 0.750  
  19 Appalachian State Sunbelt 11 1 0.917  
  20 USC Pac 12 8 4 0.667  
  21 Memphis American Athletic 11 1 0.917  
  22 Boise State Mountain West 11 1 0.917  
  23 Kansas St Big 12 8 4 0.667  
  24 Cincinnati American Athletic 10 2 0.833  
  25 Wake Forest ACC 8 4 0.667