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Gamecocks Fall, but Palmetto Dynasty Rolls On

So South Carolina’s reign at the top of the M Scale lasted only one week. Still, they were replaced by in-state rival Clemson, AKA the defending national champions, after the Gamecocks fell to Mizzou and the Tigers topped Louisville.

Here it is, then, M Scale 3 of 2017:

Wk 3   Teams Conference w l pct
1 Clemson ACC 3 0 1.000
2 USC Pac 12 3 0 1.000
3 Alabama SEC 3 0 1.000
4 Minnesota Big 10 3 0 1.000
5 Oklahoma Big 12 3 0 1.000
6 Michigan Big 10 3 0 1.000
7 Iowa Big 10 3 0 1.000
8 Oklahoma St Big 12 3 0 1.000
9 Penn State Big 10 3 0 1.000
10 Wisconsin Big 10 3 0 1.000
11 San Diego St Mountain West 3 0 1.000
12 California Pac 12 3 0 1.000
13 Kentucky SEC 3 0 1.000
14 South Florida American Athletic 3 0 1.000
15 Georgia SEC 3 0 1.000
16 Colorado Pac 12 3 0 1.000
17 Texas Christian Big 12 3 0 1.000
18 Vanderbilt SEC 3 0 1.000
19 Mississippi State SEC 3 0 1.000
20 Memphis American Athletic 2 0 1.000
21 Oregon Pac 12 3 0 1.000
22 Wake Forest ACC 3 0 1.000
23 Washington Pac 12 3 0 1.000
24 Washington State Pac 12 3 0 1.000
25 Houston American Athletic 2 0 1.000
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Rise of the Fighting Chickens

So when you look at this week’s M Scale rating, you will probably be astonished at my lack of football knowledge.  It might be a good time, then, to explain my rationale.

First of all, a reminder that M Scale does not predict future standing. It only reflects current results; the only time reputation counts at all is as a tiebreaker, which defaults to “where you finished last year”.  On the scale, not the AP ratings.

Also, my system is heavily weighted toward schedule strength. So if you would argue Alabama, as most would (indeed they were #1 in last week’s Scale), I would submit this:  In two games, South Carolina has beaten two P5 teams, both of which came in undefeated.  To be fair, in the opening week everybody is undefeated; still, this is how a team maxes out points in the early going.

Meanwhile, Alabama won an impressive opening victory vs Florida State. But last week the victim was Fresno State, a G5 who also came in undefeated; however their opener was over Incarnate Word, an FCS program and they only earned one point for that one.  So with the G5 Nerf (see last week) Bama only got 8 points from that one.

Finally, don’t count South Carolina out.  It’s a long season, but they have looked pretty good so far.

Wk 2   Teams Conference w l pct
1 South Carolina SEC 2 0 1.000
2 Louisville ACC 2 0 1.000
3 UCLA Pac 12 2 0 1.000
4 Georgia SEC 2 0 1.000
5 USC Pac 12 2 0 1.000
6 Colorado Pac 12 2 0 1.000
7 Oklahoma Big 12 2 0 1.000
8 Clemson ACC 2 0 1.000
9 Alabama SEC 2 0 1.000
10 Michigan Big 10 2 0 1.000
11 Penn State Big 10 2 0 1.000
12 Iowa Big 10 2 0 1.000
13 Minnesota Big 10 2 0 1.000
14 Eastern Michigan MAC 2 0 1.000
15 Illinois Big 10 2 0 1.000
16 Wisconsin Big 10 2 0 1.000
17 Michigan St Big 10 2 0 1.000
18 Oklahoma St Big 12 2 0 1.000
19 Oregon Pac 12 2 0 1.000
20 Wake Forest ACC 2 0 1.000
21 Duke ACC 2 0 1.000
22 San Diego St Mountain West 2 0 1.000
23 Washington Pac 12 2 0 1.000
24 Tennessee SEC 2 0 1.000
25 Maryland Big 10 2 0 1.000

New Season, New Name!!!

So I have decided to retire Uncle Mikey’s Football Poll for the more serious moniker M Scale College Football Ratings.  There are a few other changes as well:

The biggest problem with last season’s Ratings was that the G5 teams were overrated.  According to my Conference Championship Edition, Western Michigan was rated #2 behind Clemson before they were rightfully put down in the Cotton Bowl by Wisconsin, 24-16.

So the problem becomes, how to not overrate teams with a G5 schedule while not unfairly shutting them out of consideration for a high rating?  What I came up with was the G5 Nerf.

In my system, all teams start with 100 points. Each loss deals 10% of those points to the opposition.

But if a team faces less-than-stellar opposition, they can rise rapidly in the polls while wiping the floor with mediocre opponents.  So I nerf every G5 by twenty points to start the year.  That way, defeating a G5 only racks up 8 points if they are at the 80 start point.

To be fair to the G5 teams, though, they can lose the nerf by defeating a P5 team.  For the remainder of the season, they will be at full points, though the points they earned before the Un-nerfing will still be the same.

In the case of Independents, I decided that only those who scheduled at least 6 P5 schools would avoid the G5 nerf in the beginning.  Based on that, only Notre Dame of the four independents will start at a full 100.  Sorry, BYU; you missed your first chance to lose the Nerf when you lost to LSU.  If you can overcome Utah this week you can shrug off that dark cloud; for now you are ranked a dismal 98th in my initial M Scale of 2017.  Speaking of which, here it is:

wk1   Teams Conference w l pct
1 Alabama SEC 1 0 1.000
2 Washington Pac 12 1 0 1.000
3 Ohio St Big 10 1 0 1.000
4 Michigan Big 10 1 0 1.000
5 Tennessee SEC 1 0 1.000
6 Louisville ACC 1 0 1.000
7 South Carolina SEC 1 0 1.000
8 Maryland Big 10 1 0 1.000
9 UCLA Pac 12 1 0 1.000
10 California Pac 12 1 0 1.000
11 Colorado St Mountain West 1 0 1.000
12 Virginia Tech ACC 1 0 1.000
13 Wisconsin Big 10 1 0 1.000
14 Penn State Big 10 1 0 1.000
15 LSU SEC 1 0 1.000
16 Nebraska Big 10 1 0 1.000
17 Minnesota Big 10 1 0 1.000
18 Georgia SEC 1 0 1.000
19 Auburn SEC 1 0 1.000
20 Kentucky SEC 1 0 1.000
21 Iowa Big 10 1 0 1.000
22 Vanderbilt SEC 1 0 1.000
23 Mississippi SEC 1 0 1.000
24 Northwestern Big 10 1 0 1.000
25 Illinois Big 10 1 0 1.000

 

And hey, with their opening loss, my NC State Wolfpack is only ranked 61st.  How’s that for unbiased?

ACC! ACC! or the Final Poll of this Season

Well as everyone knows by now, it’s all over and the Clemson Tigers are the champions of NCAA football.  And they got there by beating the Unbeatable Ones-aka the Crimson Tide- in a thrilling come-from-behind instant classic.

So everyone is now claiming that the ACC is the top dawg in the land.  I happily concur, of course, as my poll is unbiased but I am not.

Without further ado, Uncle Mikey’s final poll of 2016-17:

Final   Teams Conference w l pct
1 +2 Clemson ACC 14 1 0.933
2 -1 Alabama SEC 14 1 0.933
3 +4 Oklahoma Big 12 11 2 0.846
4 -2 Western Michigan MAC 13 1 0.929
5 +5 USC Pac 12 10 3 0.769
6 -2 Washington Pac 12 12 2 0.857
7 -2 Ohio St Big 10 11 2 0.846
8 +7 Wisconsin Big 10 11 3 0.786
9 -1 South Florida American Athletic 11 2 0.846
10 -4 Penn State Big 10 11 3 0.786
11 -2 Florida State ACC 10 3 0.769
12 -1 Western Kentucky Conference USA 11 3 0.786
13 -1 LSU SEC 8 4 0.667
14 -1 Appalachian State Sunbelt 10 3 0.769
15 -1 Oklahoma St Big 12 10 3 0.769
16   Air Force Mountain West 10 3 0.769
17   San Diego St Mountain West 11 3 0.786
18   Stanford Pac 12 10 3 0.769
19   Michigan Big 10 10 3 0.769
20   Tulsa American Athletic 10 3 0.769
21   Troy Sunbelt 10 3 0.769
22   Old Dominion Conference USA 10 3 0.769
23   Temple American Athletic 10 4 0.714
24   Boise State Mountain West 10 3 0.769
25   Georgia Tech ACC 9 4 0.692
Bowl Winner Conf Score Loser Conf Score
Rose Southern California Pac12 52 Penn State B1G 49
Sugar Oklahoma BXII 35 Auburn SEC 19
Cotton Wisconsin B1G 24 Western Michigan MAC 16
Outback Florida SEC 30 Iowa B1G 3
Playoffs Winner Conf Score Loser Conf Score
Fiesta Bowl Clemson ACC 31 Ohio State B1G 0
Peach Bowl Alabama SEC 24 Washington Pac12 7
National Championship Winner Conf Score Loser Conf Score
Tampa, Florida Clemson ACC 35 Alabama SEC 31
Bowl Standings W L pct
ACC 9 3 .750
SEC 6 7 .462
SBC 4 2 .667
BXII 4 2 .667
MW 4 3 .571
CUSA 4 3 .571
Pac12 3 3 .500
B1G 3 7 .300
Independent 2 0 1.000
AAC 2 5 .286
MAC 0 6 .000

Pre-Playoff Edition

As I write this, Alabama is ahead of Washington 17-7 in the Peach Bowl, 3rd quarter.  So before the first playoff result is finalized, here is the way things look at this moment:

Bowl Week 2   Teams Conference w l pct
1   Alabama SEC 13 0 1.000
2   Western Michigan MAC 13 0 1.000
3   Clemson ACC 12 1 0.923
4   Washington Pac 12 12 1 0.923
5   Ohio St Big 10 11 1 0.917
6   Penn State Big 10 11 2 0.846
7   Oklahoma Big 12 10 2 0.833
8 +1 South Florida American Athletic 11 2 0.846
9 +5 Florida State ACC 10 3 0.769
10 -2 USC Pac 12 9 3 0.750
11   Western Kentucky Conference USA 11 3 0.786
12 +9 LSU SEC 8 4 0.667
13 -1 Appalachian State Sunbelt 10 3 0.769
14 +9 Oklahoma St Big 12 10 3 0.769
15   Wisconsin Big 10 10 3 0.769
16 +4 Air Force Mountain West 10 3 0.769
17 +1 San Diego St Mountain West 11 3 0.786
18 U Stanford Pac 12 10 3 0.769
19 -9 Michigan Big 10 10 3 0.769
20 +2 Tulsa American Athletic 10 3 0.769
21 U Troy Sunbelt 10 3 0.769
22 U Old Dominion Conference USA 10 3 0.769
23 -10 Temple American Athletic 10 4 0.714
24 -8 Boise State Mountain West 10 3 0.769
25 U Georgia Tech ACC 9 4 0.692
Bowl Winner Conf Score Loser Conf Score
Poinsettia Brigham Young Ind 24 Wyoming MW 21
Armed Forces Louisiana Tech CUSA 48 Navy AAC 45
Dollar General Troy SBC 28 Ohio MAC 23
Idaho Potato Idaho SBC 61 Colorado State MW 50
Independence NC State ACC 41 Vanderbilt SEC 17
Hawaii Hawaii MW 52 Middle Tennessee State CUSA 35
Bahamas Old Dominion CUSA 24 Eastern Michigan MAC 20
Cactus Baylor BXII 31 Boise State MW 12
St Petersburg Mississippi State SEC 17 Miami (Ohio) MAC 16
Quick Lane Boston College ACC 36 Maryland B1G 30
Holiday Minnesota B1G 17 Washington State Pac12 12
Texas Kansas State BXII 33 Texas A&M SEC 28
Heart of Dallas Army Ind 38 North Texas CUSA 31
Russell Athletic Miami ACC 31 West Virginia BXII 14
Heart of Dallas Army Ind 38 North Texas CUSA 31
Heart of Dallas Army Ind 38 North Texas CUSA 31
Russell Athletic Miami ACC 31 West Virginia BXII 14
Belk Virginia Tech ACC 35 Arkansas SEC 24
Military Wake Forest ACC 34 Temple AAC 26
Foster Farms Utah Pac12 26 Indiana B1G 24
Alamo Oklahoma State BXII 38 Colorado Pac12 8
Pinstripe Northwestern B1G 31 Pittsburgh ACC 24
Liberty Georgia SEC 31 Texas Christian BXII 23
Arizona Air Force MW 45 South Alabama SBC 21
Sun Stanford Pac12 25 North Carolina ACC 23
Citrus LSU SEC 29 Louisville ACC 9
Orange Florida State ACC 33 Michigan B1G 32
Music City Tennessee SEC 38 Nebraska B1G 24
Taxslayer Georgia Tech ACC 33 Kentucky SEC 18
Birmingham South Florida AAC 46 South Carolina SEC 39

 

Bowl Standings W L pct
Independent 2 0 1.000
ACC 7 3 .700
SBC 4 2 .667
BXII 3 2 .600
MW 4 3 .571
CUSA 4 3 .571
Pac12 2 2 .500
SEC 4 5 .444
B1G 2 4 .333
AAC 2 5 .286
MAC 0 5 .000

Bowl Special Edition: Week One

So, the earliest round of bowls are complete, showcasing G5 teams before the big boys take the stage.  Not to devalue these games; several were close, exciting contests and if you skipped them all, it was your loss, pal.

This will indeed be a “special edition”; instead of just rolling out this week’s poll, we will recap all the bowl scores that were factored in to the poll.  Then we will look at what conferences have the early lead in win percentage for bowl season 2016-17.

Without further ado, here it is.  And please have a safe and Merry Christmas all.

 

Bowl Winner Conf Score Loser Conf Score
             
Boca Raton Western Kentucky CUSA 51 Memphis AAC 31
Miami Beach Tulsa AAC 55 Central Michigan MAC 10
New Mexico New Mexico MW 23 UTSA CUSA 20
Las Vegas San Diego State MW 34 Houston AAC 10
Cure Arkansas State SBC 31 Central Florida AAC 13
Camellia Appalachian State SBC 31 Toledo MAC 28
New Orleans Southern Mississippi CUSA 28 UL Lafayette SBC 21

 

Bowl Standings W L pct
MW 2 0 1.000
CUSA 2 1 .667
SBC 2 1 .667
AAC 1 3 .250
MAC 0 2 .000
Bowl Week 1   Teams Conference w l pct
1   Alabama SEC 13 0 1.000
2   Western Michigan MAC 13 0 1.000
3   Clemson ACC 12 1 0.923
4   Washington Pac 12 12 1 0.923
5   Ohio St Big 10 11 1 0.917
6   Penn State Big 10 11 2 0.846
7   Oklahoma Big 12 10 2 0.833
8   USC Pac 12 9 3 0.750
9   South Florida American Athletic 10 2 0.833
10   Michigan Big 10 10 2 0.833
+6 11   Western Kentucky Conference USA 11 3 0.786
+9 12   Appalachian State Sunbelt 10 3 0.769
-2 13   Temple American Athletic 10 3 0.769
-2 14   Florida State ACC 9 3 0.750
-2 15   Wisconsin Big 10 10 3 0.769
-2 16   Boise State Mountain West 10 2 0.833
-2 17   Colorado Pac 12 10 3 0.769
U 18   San Diego St Mountain West 11 3 0.786
-3 19   West Virginia Big 12 10 2 0.833
-2 20   Air Force Mountain West 9 3 0.750
-1 21   LSU SEC 7 4 0.636
U 22   Tulsa American Athletic 10 3 0.769
-1 23   Oklahoma St Big 12 9 3 0.750
-1 24   Louisville ACC 9 3 0.750
-1 25   Nebraska Big 10 9 3 0.750

 

Uncle Mikey’s Post Army-Navy Edition

Well Army, or Army-West Point if you insist, finally broke a 14-year drought and defeated their bitter rival, Navy. As a former Navy brat and Army National Guard veteran, I always feel a little torn when this one comes up, but I’m really glad the streak is over. No fun watching one team dominate year after year (see: Alabama, New England Patriots, etc.)

So here’s the poll, with only two changes:  Navy is out and Stanford joins at #25. Oh, and Louisville and Nebraska move up one notch. Conference champions in bold.

1   Alabama SEC 13 0 1.000
2   Western Michigan MAC 13 0 1.000
3   Clemson ACC 12 1 0.923
4   Washington Pac 12 12 1 0.923
5   Ohio St Big 10 11 1 0.917
6   Penn State Big 10 11 2 0.846
7   Oklahoma Big 12 10 2 0.833
8   USC Pac 12 9 3 0.750
9   South Florida American Athletic 10 2 0.833
10   Michigan Big 10 10 2 0.833
11   Temple American Athletic 10 3 0.769
12   Florida State ACC 9 3 0.750
13   Wisconsin Big 10 10 3 0.769
14   Boise State Mountain West 10 2 0.833
15   Colorado Pac 12 10 3 0.769
16   West Virginia Big 12 10 2 0.833
17   Western Kentucky Conference USA 10 3 0.769
18   Air Force Mountain West 9 3 0.750
19   Houston American Athletic 9 3 0.750
20   LSU SEC 7 4 0.636
21   Appalachian State Sunbelt 9 3 0.750
22   Oklahoma St Big 12 9 3 0.750
23   Louisville ACC 9 3 0.750
24   Nebraska Big 10 9 3 0.750
25   Stanford Pac 12 9 3 0.750